XRP Price Drops 3.78% — $1.24 Monthly Target Looms as Key Support Breaks

XRP (XRP/USD) is trading at $1.6455 on February 1, 2026, down 3.78% in the last 24 hours, as persistent selling pressure pushes the token closer to key technical support zones.

Short-term price structure now points to a monthly downside target near $1.24, implying a 24%–25% potential decline from current levels if support fails.

The token has already dropped 8.8% over the past week and nearly 44% over six months, reflecting extended bearish momentum across large-cap altcoins. Despite a still-sizeable $105.4B market cap, elevated $6.64B daily volume suggests aggressive liquidation and institutional repositioning rather than low-liquidity weakness.

XRP Technical Analysis: Momentum Weakens Despite High Volume

Indicators show a mixed but increasingly fragile setup:

RSI: 66.74 → near overbought territory, often followed by pullbacks
MACD Histogram: 0.05 → fading bullish momentum
ADX: 34.92 → confirms a strong prevailing trend (currently downward)
Stochastic: 76.34 / 54.80 → short-term exhaustion signals
CCI: 381.84 → extreme reading, historically precedes reversals

Bollinger Bands

Upper: $2.17
Mid: $1.93
Lower: $1.70 (critical support)

Price trading below the mid-band while approaching the lower band typically signals continued downside pressure unless buyers step in quickly.

Market Sentiment & Volume: Real Selling, Not Noise

Trading activity is unusually high:

Volume: $6.64B vs $134M 30-day average
Relative Volume: 2.22x normal
OBV: –96.95B (steady distribution)
MFI: 64.35 → capital outflows

This combination points to genuine selling pressure, likely from larger holders or leveraged unwinds, rather than temporary volatility.

When OBV trends lower during rising volume, it usually confirms sustained distribution phases.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Recovery Potential

Near-Term Outlook

Monthly target: $1.24 (-24.6%)
Breakdown risk if $1.70 fails
$1.50 next demand zone

Longer-Term Scenarios

Yearly: $4.16 (+152%)
3-year: $6.77
5-year: $9.37

Longer projections assume:

broader crypto recovery
improved regulation clarity
renewed institutional flows

However, current technical structure favors testing lower supports first before any sustainable rebound.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Support

$1.70 – Lower Bollinger Band
$1.50 – Day low
$1.24 – Monthly forecast zone

Resistance

$1.75 – Intraday high
$1.97 – 50-day MA
$2.17 – Upper Bollinger Band
$2.53 – 200-day MA

A clean break below $1.70 could accelerate selling toward $1.50–$1.24 quickly.

Why XRP Is Falling Today

Several factors are converging:

Overbought technical readings triggering profit-taking
Broader crypto market softness
High leveraged liquidations
Breakdown below short-term averages
Ongoing uncertainty around Ripple Labs regulatory developments

Together, these pressures create systematic selling rather than isolated weakness.

Final Take

XRP remains under pressure with momentum skewed lower.

While long-term recovery levels remain intact, near-term risk favors further downside, especially if $1.70 fails to hold. Traders should monitor volume behavior closely sustained high selling volume would validate a move toward the $1.24 target.

Until buyers reclaim the $1.93–$2.00 range, rallies may be viewed as temporary relief bounces rather than trend reversals.