XRP (XRP/USD) is trading at $1.6455 on February 1, 2026, down 3.78% in the last 24 hours, as persistent selling pressure pushes the token closer to key technical support zones.
Short-term price structure now points to a monthly downside target near $1.24, implying a 24%–25% potential decline from current levels if support fails.
The token has already dropped 8.8% over the past week and nearly 44% over six months, reflecting extended bearish momentum across large-cap altcoins. Despite a still-sizeable $105.4B market cap, elevated $6.64B daily volume suggests aggressive liquidation and institutional repositioning rather than low-liquidity weakness.
XRP Technical Analysis: Momentum Weakens Despite High Volume
Indicators show a mixed but increasingly fragile setup:
- RSI: 66.74 → near overbought territory, often followed by pullbacks
- MACD Histogram: 0.05 → fading bullish momentum
- ADX: 34.92 → confirms a strong prevailing trend (currently downward)
- Stochastic: 76.34 / 54.80 → short-term exhaustion signals
- CCI: 381.84 → extreme reading, historically precedes reversals
Bollinger Bands
- Upper: $2.17
- Mid: $1.93
- Lower: $1.70 (critical support)
Price trading below the mid-band while approaching the lower band typically signals continued downside pressure unless buyers step in quickly.
Market Sentiment & Volume: Real Selling, Not Noise
Trading activity is unusually high:
- Volume: $6.64B vs $134M 30-day average
- Relative Volume: 2.22x normal
- OBV: –96.95B (steady distribution)
- MFI: 64.35 → capital outflows
This combination points to genuine selling pressure, likely from larger holders or leveraged unwinds, rather than temporary volatility.
When OBV trends lower during rising volume, it usually confirms sustained distribution phases.
XRP Price Forecast: Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Recovery Potential
Near-Term Outlook
- Monthly target: $1.24 (-24.6%)
- Breakdown risk if $1.70 fails
- $1.50 next demand zone
Longer-Term Scenarios
- Yearly: $4.16 (+152%)
- 3-year: $6.77
- 5-year: $9.37
Longer projections assume:
- broader crypto recovery
- improved regulation clarity
- renewed institutional flows
However, current technical structure favors testing lower supports first before any sustainable rebound.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support
- $1.70 – Lower Bollinger Band
- $1.50 – Day low
- $1.24 – Monthly forecast zone
Resistance
- $1.75 – Intraday high
- $1.97 – 50-day MA
- $2.17 – Upper Bollinger Band
- $2.53 – 200-day MA
A clean break below $1.70 could accelerate selling toward $1.50–$1.24 quickly.
Why XRP Is Falling Today
Several factors are converging:
- Overbought technical readings triggering profit-taking
- Broader crypto market softness
- High leveraged liquidations
- Breakdown below short-term averages
- Ongoing uncertainty around Ripple Labs regulatory developments
Together, these pressures create systematic selling rather than isolated weakness.
Final Take
XRP remains under pressure with momentum skewed lower.
While long-term recovery levels remain intact, near-term risk favors further downside, especially if $1.70 fails to hold. Traders should monitor volume behavior closely sustained high selling volume would validate a move toward the $1.24 target.
Until buyers reclaim the $1.93–$2.00 range, rallies may be viewed as temporary relief bounces rather than trend reversals.
