The Tesla Optimus robot is rapidly becoming the main story for Wall Street as it rethinks Tesla ’s long-term value. Recent gains have pushed TSLA shares above $450, with analysts increasingly modeling the company as a future robotics and AI platform, not just an electric vehicle maker. The Optimus robot is still in development and not yet available to customers, but its potential has already reshaped how investors view Tesla’s prospects.
Optimus: The Robot That Could Define Tesla’s Future
The latest rally followed a research note highlighting growing government interest in robotics and the possibility of U.S. policy support by 2026. Analysts see advanced robotics as a strategic area of competition with China, which benefits companies like Tesla leading the charge. CEO Elon Musk has set ambitious goals for Optimus, aiming to start selling the robot to external customers by 2026 and reach one million units sold by 2035. While there is no confirmed pricing or demand data yet, Musk’s vision is already driving detailed financial models.
Analysts Model a $400 Billion Robot Business
Several Wall Street analysts have begun to quantify the potential of the Tesla Optimus robot. One influential firm upgraded TSLA to a Buy, assuming a $20,000 per unit cost and a 50% gross margin. In this scenario, the robot business could generate massive profits if Tesla achieves scale. Another analyst projects $400 billion in annual Optimus sales by 2050, valuing the robot business at more than one-third of Tesla’s current market cap. Even more conservative estimates see the robot segment worth over $100 per share today. All of these analysts currently rate TSLA as a Buy, showing how central the Optimus narrative has become.
Musk’s Pay Package and Robot Goals
Musk’s latest compensation package is tied directly to Tesla’s robot sales, with a milestone of one million units by 2035. This structure incentivizes rapid progress and mass adoption. If the optimistic models are even partially accurate, Tesla could sell far more than one million units, making Optimus a core profit engine.
EVs Still Matter
While the robot story grabs headlines, Tesla’s traditional EV business remains vital. The company recently launched a lower-priced Model 3 Standard in Europe to compete with cheaper EVs from European and Chinese makers. In Germany, the Model 3 Standard is priced at €37,970, while in the U.S., it sells for $36,990. Tesla also introduced a more affordable Model Y, showing that management is still focused on defending market share.
The Bottom Line
Tesla’s stock is now priced on expectations for the Optimus robot, not just its EV sales. While the robot business is still speculative, Wall Street’s bullish models and Musk’s ambitious goals have made Optimus a key driver of TSLA’s volatility. For now, the Tesla Optimus robot is more than a tech demo it’s a central part of Tesla’s long-term story.
